“Operation Absolute Resolve”: a tactical Victory, a strategic collapse.
On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces executed “Operation Absolute Resolve“, removing Nicolás Maduro in a predawn raid. In Washington, it was celebrated as a liberation. Yet beneath the triumphal headlines lies a darker truth: this was not the restoration of democracy, but the collapse of the rules that once protected it.
Democracy Is Process, Not Speed
Democracy thrives on messy procedures, consensus-building, and the rule of law. By bypassing the United Nations and regional partners, the U.S. declared that speed matters more than legitimacy – That’s the logic of autocracy.
Venezuelans became passive recipients of change, not active agents. A protectorate replaces a democracy when foreign force dictates leadership.
Let’s step back. Why does this matter beyond Venezuela? Because when the “slow work” of diplomacy is replaced by unilateral raids, the precedent doesn’t stop at Caracas—it travels outward.
Beijing’s Opportunity: The Venezuela Precedent
For decades, U.S. strategy rested on defending sovereignty against powers like China and Russia. But the Caracas strike incinerated that moral high ground.
China can now argue: if Washington can topple a regime in its hemisphere, why can’t Beijing act in Taiwan?
The precedent revives the old idea of “Spheres of Influence”—the belief that big powers can treat nearby countries like their own backyard, deciding who governs without asking the people.
Here’s why this matters: this logic could now be applied to Taiwan or the South China Sea.
if Washington can topple a regime in its hemisphere, why can’t Beijing act in Taiwan?
Who Benefits When Law Is Bent to Power?
By elevating U.S. domestic law above international sovereignty, Washington handed authoritarian leaders a playbook:
– Putin can justify interventions in Georgia or the Baltics under “protection of compatriots”.
– China can dismiss rulings from international courts, citing U.S. disregard for the UN Charter.
Consider: If international law becomes optional, who benefits most—the weak or the strong?
Shattering the democratic Coalition
True democratic leadership requires patience and consensus. Acting alone alienates allies in Latin America and Europe, weakening the collective ability to respond to future crises.
Next time the U.S. calls for unity in defense of sovereignty, partners may recall Caracas. The coalition fractures, leaving democracies less able to sanction aggressors.
Can democracies survive if consensus is sacrificed for unilateral speed?
The normative firewall collapses
Since the Treaty of Westphalia (1648) and the UN Charter (1945), sovereignty has been the cornerstone of international order. Collective security was designed to prevent unilateral aggression.
Think about this: “Westphalian sovereignty” simply means each nation controls its own territory without outside interference. By striking Caracas alone, the U.S. dismantled this firewall—opening the door for others to do the same.
– Beijing can now cite the ‘Venezuela Precedent’ to justify a police action in Taiwan.
– Moscow can claim domestic mandates override sovereignty in the Baltics.
The precedent is clear: might makes right.
| WITH UN CONSENSUS | WITHOUT UN CONSENSUS |
|---|---|
| – Korean War (1950) : UN Security Council authorized collective defense after North Korea invaded the South. Korean War legitimized UN’s role in collective security. | – Grenada (1983) : U.S. invaded to oust a Marxist regime without UN approval. Grenada raised questions about U.S. unilateralism in the Western Hemisphere. |
| – Gulf War (1991) : UN authorized force to expel Iraq from Kuwait. Reinforced multilateral legitimacy. | – Panama (1989) : U.S. removed Manuel Noriega without UN backing. Panama intervention criticized as violating sovereignty, setting precedent for regime change. |
| – Libya (2011) : UN approved “Responsibility to Protect” mandate, leading to NATO intervention. Libya intervention showed UN’s evolving humanitarian role. | – Kosovo (1999) : NATO bombed Serbia without UN authorization. Kosovo bypassed UN, sparking debate on humanitarian intervention vs. legality. |
| – Iraq (2003) : U.S. invaded citing WMDs, without UN authorization. Iraq war delegitimized U.S. leadership, destabilized Middle East, eroded trust in international law. | |
| – Caracas (2026) : U.S. raid abducted Maduro, condemned by UN experts as a grave violation of sovereignty. Caracas precedent shattered sovereignty norms, normalized unilateral aggression, and risked destabilizing global order. |
Sources:
UN experts condemn U.S. aggression against Venezuela (OHCHR)
Foreign interventions by the United States – Wikipedia
Military Intervention Project dataset (1776–2019)
Law Bent to Power
In The Anarchical Society (1977), Hedley Bull warned that when great powers treat law as optional, order collapses into anarchy. By justifying the raid through domestic indictments, the U.S. asserted that its own laws supersede international sovereignty—arming autocrats with precedent in places like Georgia and the South China Sea.
Reference: Hedley Bull – The Anarchical Society
Fracturing Alliances
In After Victory (2001), G. John Ikenberry argued that U.S. leadership rests on institutions others can trust. By acting alone, Washington alienated partners in Europe and Latin America. The next time it calls for collective defense of sovereignty, it may find only silence.
Reference: Project MUSE – After Victory
Closing Reflection
Caracas solved a dictator but destroyed a principle. It was a Pyrrhic victory—one that normalized aggression, eroded trust, and set the stage for a century where power alone dictates legitimacy. The sheriff has thrown away his badge, and the law no longer restrains the gun.
Let’s step back one last time. This story is not only about states and armies—it is about us.
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Your challenge: carry the lesson of Caracas into your own civic life. Defend process in the places you live it—in schools, councils, communities, and conversations. Democracy survives only if we practice it daily, even when it feels slow, even when shortcuts tempt us.
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