“Where missiles roar, metaphors clash, and Southeast Asia quietly recalibrates“.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrive for a reception marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China September 3, 2025. Florence Lo/Reuters
Beijing, VIP Viewing Platform.
Two ornate chairs. One stiff handshake. A parade so choreographed it could rival a K-pop concert. a military parade unfolds with theatrical precision. But for ASEAN leaders seated above, the real performance isn’t on the tarmac—it’s in the handshake.
While the world saw missiles and stealth fighters, we saw something far more consequential: the carefully choreographed interaction between China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi. Their smiles were wide. Their grip was firm. But the tension was unmistakable. For ASEAN, this wasn’t theatre. It was a stress test of regional stability.
Why This Parade Matters Now
The handshake between Xi and Modi came just weeks after their meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit—their first bilateral encounter in China since the Galwan clashes. The optics were warm. The mistrust remains
Meanwhile, ASEAN is quietly building resilience. At the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting, leaders are finalizing the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA)—a $2 trillion blueprint for regional growth. Malaysia, as chair, is mediating tensions and hosting consultations with India, China, and Russia. This is ASEAN’s quiet power: soft diplomacy as strategic leverage.
Citation: The Diplomat, August 2025 – “If China and India Mend Ties, Will South Asia Finally See More Stability?“
Referance : The Diplomat Note
Strategic Parallels: The Parade as Proxy
China’s display of robotic wolves and stealth fighters wasn’t just military theatre—it was a coded message. To India. To ASEAN. To anyone watching.
The guest-of-honor status given to Pakistan’s Prime Minister? A masterstroke of strategic signaling. A reminder of China’s depth and India’s encirclement. For ASEAN, it was a warning: this rivalry is expanding, and we may be next in line.
ASEAN’s Response: From Spectator to Stabilizer
We cannot afford to be passive. The current moment demands that ASEAN:
- Leverage platforms like the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum to anchor both giants in dialogue.
- Push for digital and economic integration – Advance DEFA and RCEP to reduce dependency on any single power bloc.
- Reassert ASEAN centrality by convening inclusive, rules-based frameworks that resist coercive diplomacy.
This is not just a diplomatic necessity—it’s an existential one. As Ian Bremmer recently noted, a thaw between India and China would serve global interests. But for ASEAN, it’s not enough to hope for peace. We must engineer it.
A Scene Worth Replaying
MODI: “It’s very… vertical.”
XI: “It helps mediate complex border discussions.”
MODI: “We prefer software. Less explosive, but very persuasive.”
The Xi-Modi exchange—equal parts charm and challenge—was a masterclass in passive-aggressive diplomacy. For ASEAN, it was a reminder that behind every handshake lies a negotiation. And behind every parade, a provocation.
Closing Reflection
ASEAN is not a pawn. We are the board.
The viewing platform gave us a front-row seat to a geopolitical drama. But it also gave us a mirror.
If ASEAN wants to remain central, we must be more than observers. We must be choreographers of stability, architects of dialogue, and stewards of a regional order
that survives the roar of jets and the silence between handshakes.
Referance : The Diplomat Note
🔹 DEFA – Digital Economy Framework Agreement
A proposed ASEAN-led agreement aimed at creating a unified digital ecosystem across Southeast Asia. DEFA seeks to harmonize rules on data governance, cybersecurity, digital trade, and cross-border e-commerce. If finalized, it could unlock over $2 trillion in digital growth by 2030 and position ASEAN as a global digital hub.
Why it matters:
DEFA is ASEAN’s strategic response to digital fragmentation and great-power tech competition. It strengthens internal cohesion and reduces dependency on external digital infrastructure.
🔹 RCEP – Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
The world’s largest free trade agreement, signed in 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including all 10 ASEAN members, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. RCEP covers trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual property, and e-commerce.
Why it matters:
RCEP reinforces ASEAN’s centrality in regional trade and offers a platform for economic integration that includes both China and India—making it a potential stabilizer amid rising bloc politics.
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